SBC Annual Meeting predictions...from long distance, since I will not be there.
Election for SBC president:
Stop-the-world: A non-megachurch pastor (Leo Endel) gets elected. I mean, if the small church lobbying group endorses a megachurch pastor for president, what does that say about messengers being interested in anyone but a high-profile megapastor?
Shocking: A president is elected on the first ballot without a runoff. Endel gets even 10% of the vote.
Surprising: Jimmy Jackson, the only major candidate who has spoken against the GCRTF recommendations, is elected.
Ho hum: Bryant Wright or Ted Traylor is elected in a runoff.
I really don’t have a good feel for this but I’ll offer a conjecture: Jimmy Jackson gets in the runoff with the support of the GCRTF critics but loses handily to Wright or Traylor. I’ll go right from my heart on this one and pick Wright to win because (a) I like him, (b) I like his radical approach to SBC funding, (c) I hear he has the support of SBC Orthodontists.
GCRTF Report and Recommendations
Stop-the-world: The convention rejects the report out-of-hand.
Shocking: The convention forces a point-by-point vote on the various components of the report.
Surprising: Any part of the report is amended or rejected.
Ho hum: The convention passes the report as it is presented.
Sorry, but Morris Chapman, the Task Force's most prominent opponent, just doesn’t have the wherewithal to pull many votes. Neither does anyone else in Baptist Press' lineup of GCRTF opponents. The report passes easily.
Maybe I am out of touch here. What do you think?
8 comments:
I see that the Plodder has gotten a little love in the world of Twitter thanks to the Christian Index twitter feed.
http://twitter.com/christianindex
-BDW
We’ll know in a day or two if you’re a prophet. Enjoyed reading your musings.
David R. Brumbelow
I expect Traylor will do better than Wright for a few reasons: 1) People like CP givers and Traylor's church is doing more than Wright's, 2) Traylor was on the GCRTF and so has more direct political connections to the GCR supporters, 3) there won't be many orthodontists there. ;-)
Thanks BDW, my reputation has once again exceeded me.
Yep, David, one thing about concrete predictions...you can be champ or chump the next day. Thanks for the comment.
I would guess, with the carefully wrapped and packaged critique of Baptist Press, and the opposition of Chapman, that there may be some powerful influences who aren't happy that the GCRTF came out the way it did. Depends on who it is, but I wouldn't predict the outcome of the vote on that issue.
I'll predict a Traylor-Jackson second ballot, and the outcome of that will depent on who is in the hall at the time the vote is taken. I've seen some strange things happen in some of those later sessions where fewer than 1/5 of the messengers come back for the vote.
Will the proceedings be lived streamed like the Pastor's Conference was?
Andy Stanley was pretty interesting last night as they are talking about it this morning at SBCvoices.com
IS SBC Lived Streamed is the most important question right now.
I think the Presidency could go to the Wright fellow.
Fox: http://www.316networks.com/sbc10/
You could have found this if you tried.
William; I did find it but I appreciate you posting it as well. I'm sure others appreciate it as well.
I tried and I found it.
I turned down a BBQ sandwich, a great one at that, this afternoon to stay by the computer to see how this drama unfolds.
Morris Chapman as you well know at 2:20 is very distraught with the last five recommendations of the GCR; saying if they are adopted you will be Independent Baptists Tomorrow.
Rope of Sand is being tested.
Sincerely looking forward to your analysis.
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