Monday, June 18, 2012

2012 SBC Annual Meeting Predictions

My predictions...from a distance of 527.85 miles:

Election of SBC President

Stop the world:  Fred Luter is not elected.

Shocking: Fred Luter has an unannounced opponent.

Surprising: Fred Luter receives a lackluster nomination.

Ho Hum: Fred Luter is elected as is right, good, positive, and expected.

I regret that  this will not be the biggest story. It should be. It deserves to be.

Election of SBC 1st Vice President

Doesn't matter.

Election of SBC 2nd Vice President

Stop the world:  In a show of statesmanship, unity, and concern for our convention avoiding a destructive return to partisan elections each of the three candidates withdraw and an unknown, fully neutral, replacement candidate is agreed upon.

Shocking:  Dave Miller is elected.

Surprising:  Eric Hankins doesn't win handily.

Ho Hum:  Eric Hankins wins without a runoff.

This election makes me sad because it is being perceived, perhaps not by the candidates but others, as a competition over Traditionalists/Calvinists. This should give an idea of how many votes a high-profile SBC blogger can pull.

Frank Page's Traditionalist/Calvinist 'initiative'

Stop the world: SBC Calvinists and Traditionalists have a confab at Cafe du Monde that ends in a hugfest and everyone agrees to love one another and not seek the preeminence in the SBC. 

Shocking:  Eric Hankins and Dave Miller agree to withdraw from their candidacy for 2nd VP and are put on Page's blue ribbon committee to examine the Calvinist/Traditionalist controversy.

Surprising:  Frank Page recommends to the convention a high-profile study committee which is not heavily weighted with megachurch people. 

Ho Hum: Frank Page, in an honest and sincere effort to avoid another internecine, bloody, and protracted semi-theological denominational conflict appoints a study committee composed of the usual two-thirds megachurch people.

I would love to be shocked on this with either or both of the two middle predictions. We have to come to some agreeable accord on this or it will be ugly.


Stop the world: Attendance is down from last year.

Shocking:  Attendance is above 15,000

Surprising:  Attendees eat in moderation and tip appropriately.

Ho Hum: Attendance around 12,500

One should never underestimate the desire of some Southern Baptists to watch train wrecks. Two locomotives are barreling down the tracks toward each other. Let's see if someone can put on the brakes.

Wish I could be there.


Bart Barber said...

I'll be surprised if it enrollment is as high as that. In 2001, while we were debating a revision of the BF&M, we enrolled fewer than 10,000 messengers.

William Thornton said...

Maybe not, Bart. I'm trying to be optimistic, or inflate the numbers.

Jonathan said...

My prediction: nothing of significant impact will happen at this year's annual meeting.

Ego's will be stoked, posse's will form, The personal assistants of men who have a much higher vision of self than is necessary (or Godly) will chauffeur, act as concierges, set up meetings, take notes, confirm/reconfirm travel arrangement, fact check the speeches of competing important folks.

Meanwhile, a missionary family in a dangerous place will continue to do what they do, in spite of corrupt local officials, local police seeking to arrest anyone seen meeting with them, meddling IMB middle managers seeking to advance their careers...