2013 Predictions, Plodder is no genuine prophet

...but would win the batting championship if this were baseball. My predictions for this year and evaluation of the same:

1. Fred Luter will be reelected. Nothing big to happen here. In a moment of prescience, I got this one right.

2. There will be contested SBC vice president elections. Got this right as well. A little known blogger elected as 2nd VP in a session that clearly lacked a quorum. While the 2nd VP is a rather obscure and meaningless position, we should follow our own by-laws in the future. Parliamentarians and presiding officers please pay closer attention.

3. The Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission will get a new leader. Whomever he is will have some work to do to restore credibility. Right again. Russell Moore, and he has started well, although unprepared for the Housing Allowance court decision.

4. Frank Page's Calvinist Advisory Team will issue a report early this year.  Whatever they end up with will probably be quickly forgotten. Right again. They issued a report that I judged to get some things right and missed the mark on some other things . Quickly, what did the report say? That's what I thought. It's all forgotten now. There was a bit of an eruption over damnation of infants but that has subsided. 

5. I predict that Calvinism in the SBC will look back on 2012 as their high water mark and that SBC Calvinist news for 2013 will be mostly unhelpful to their movement. On the first part, it is too early to tell. Judge me guilty of making a macro prediction. On the 2013 Calvinist news being unhelpful, maybe. Jason K. Allen, new head of Midwestern Seminary made some remarks I thought unhelpful.

6. Some SBC agencies will hire senior level staff who are African American. Well, if they have they are under the radar. 

7. In contrast to the above, the only high profile females in SBC life will be wives of prominent pastors. Name any senior staff level females in any SBC entities. Right on this one.

8. The Cooperative Program will continue to be flat, which is a welcome improvement. Wrong. The CP showed another decline, only about 2%, but that is not flat. It's more of the gentle downward incline. Some states, Georgia for one, showed surprisingly steep drops in CP giving. 

9. State conventions will continue to feel the most pressure financially and more churches will use various methods to fund NAMB and the IMB directly without diluting their giving to these through the Cooperative Program. True and correct. Both major mission offerings increased last year while the CP dropped. If the trend lines continue for a decade or so there will be as much given to Lottie Moon alone as to the entire SBC portion of the CP. 

10. What is euphemistically termed "complementarianism" will have a bad year, mainly due to a few high profile Calvinist churches. Nah, nothing much happened here. 

11. GuideStone will finally accede to political realities and get around to addressing the reality of Obamacare as it relates to their comprehensive health insurance for ministers. The outcome will not be good. I give myself a neutral grade here. GuideStone was rather quiet on ObamaCare except for the abortion/birth control mandate. They have announced that they will no longer write individual policies. Only God knows what is ahead for SBC ministers and GuideStone comprehensive health coverage, although we all know it will continue to cost more if they offer it.

12. Southern Baptists my age will continue to lament the absence of Adrian Rogers or anyone of his stature. Since I so lamented, I judge myself correct here.

What I did not see coming?

The housing allowance, our Sacred Clergy Tax Break, being ruled unconstitutional. I will certainly have a prediction for 2014 on this.

Egalitarianism/Complementarianism - our two favorite 50 cent words

Not a lot of deep thinking or tricky exegesis here, just some observations and questions:

Egalitarianism and complementarianism are sterile terms that fail to convey much for either position. They dehumanize women in the same manner that antebellum vocabularly dehumanized a considerable segment of the American populace.

There is no good manner by which Baptist groups (associations, state conventions, or the SBC) can assert their belief in and desire for pure complementarianism and not appear harsh and unfair. Google "Bailey Nelson" and "Surry" for last year's poster situation of the same.

Leading SBC females are almost always wives of prominent pastors or SBC entity leaders. Note, for example, the ABP story about the new LifeWay Women's Evangelical Commentary which features the female spouses of two SBC entity leaders. Plodder would be pleased if readers would submit names of SBC females of prominence who do not fit this profile. Aside from Beth Moore, I cannot think of a single one. Name female members of blue ribbon SBC committees who are not married to pastors or SBC entity leaders.

What is communicated to SBC females by the above? That you will not have great value unless you are espoused to a minister?

Although we officially specify "senior pastor" as limited to men, it is necessary in the application of complementarianism to continually define proper roles. Should women be allowed to read the Bible in worship? Should there be deaconesses? Should they only teach children? To what age? Should they address mixed groups? Should they be "under authority" of a husband? Etc. Etc. ad nasueum.

All the tempered words on complementarianism/egalitarianism are undone by a the regular, if not frequent, intemperate words. Google Andy Davis and FBC Durham.

Quick, name the highest ranking female who is employed by any SBC entity?

Has complementarianism has already passed its high water mark in SBC life?

Will we see, in spite of SBC heavyweights holding conferences, seminars, and publishing materials, a steady erosion of support, first from the pew, later from the pulpit?

We're in for a rough ride with these two fifty-cent terms...and some decry the term "Southern" in our name.