Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Plodders predictions, er, conjectures for 2011

Doesn't cost a thing to make predictions. Even if you're wrong, people forget about them and you can always trumpet the lucky few you get right. Here are mine on SBC stuff:

International Mission Board:
The 96 trustees will finally settle on a new leader who will be a known SBC figure rather than an obscure missions-driven person like Jerry Rankin was way back when he was tapped to be the leader.

The IMB will not make the Ezell mistake and choose a person whose support of the Cooperative Program and Lottie Moon was virtually nonexistent, forcing their new leader to continually explain an apologize for the non-support; however, believing that the key issue with the IMB is funding and that megachurch pastors know how to rake in cash, the trustees’ new man (dare anyone even think a woman will even be considered?) will either be a megachurch pastor or have strong mega connections. This will prove to be a mistaken belief.

The IMB even with the new leader will still have funding shortfalls.

North American Mission Board
Having cleared the decks of 99 employees at his Alpharetta HQ, Kevin Ezell will focus his attention on planting churches and will make some major policy changes, including direct funding to some megachurches. This will be hotly criticized. The Annie Armstrong offering will yet again fall far short of the goal. That and declining Cooperative Program giving will force more staffing cuts. The plan to end the Cooperative Agreements with the states will go forward but without yielding much additional money for NAMB.

Cooperative Program:
The decades long decline in the percentage of church offering plate dollars devoted to the CP will continue.

Great Commission Resurgence Recommendations:
Even though a number of state conventions declared they would move towards a 50/50 state/national CP split, little movement in this direction will actually occur.

Assorted odd stuff:

An SBC megachurch pastor will be involved in a major scandal.

The Cooperative Baptist Fellowship will continue to eke out an existence but will not find their ‘revisioning’ sufficiently visionary to infuse new life into an organization that still has the identity of being the anti-SBC.

The Southern Baptists of Texas convention will surpass the Baptist General Convention of Texas in revenues.

GuideStone, recognizing that their health insurance product is struggling, that their pool of insured is older and sicker, and that they will soon to be priced out of the market, will make changes to keep it from total collapse. Premiums will nonetheless go up.

Frank Page will prove to be less hands-on with Baptist Press than his predecessor, even though he made BP part of his PR office.

Plodder will continue his incessant blogging and will acquire an audience beyond even what he can count on his fingers, and toes.


stephen fox said...

Oregon will beat Auburn by 11 and will be national champs. Alabama will have lost two games by the second Saturday in November 2011.
William Thornton of SBC Plodder will find a way to watch the ESPN 30/30 The Best that Never Was and will blog on it by mid March.
3)Howell Scott and Thornton by May will both read Jill Lepore's The Whites of Their Eyes and Marilynne Robinson's Absence of Mind; and with the first book confess, concede in part, an error in their thinking.
4) Brian Kaylor and Robert Parham will continue to interpret and relay the challenges of Scripture and Christ's hopes for the world, and in key places their insight will continue to elude SBC Plodder; as an example the post up today on Health Care and the Leadership of the SBC
5)Plodder as well as highest levels of SBC will resist a straightforward look at the differences between SBC Peace Committee's Charles Pickering and the Baptist Joint Committee; and Frank Page's understanding of the church in the world will continue to be clouded by the politics of the Tea Party and Jim Demint as Sarah Posner has examined at religion dispatches, and a post in SBC Trends at is struggling to gain traction.

William Thornton said...

Plodder predicts that Fox will be Fox in 2011. I love you bro...there's only one like you.

Anonymous said...

"Ezell will focus his attention on planting churches and will make some major policy changes, including direct funding to some megachurches. "

Interesting prediction. I thought of this possibility also and just thinking it irritated me greatly. To me it is the little guy giving to the big guy so he can give to his big guy friends who may be on the team roster but do not play in the game... so his big guy friend can have his own personal team and play his own game.

And there is a movement to quit funding pioneer states, why?

Your CP prediction is spot on

Love being a SB but the narrowing on things not biblical is going to hurt more than help. I look back with amazement how much the little guys voice was needed in 79 and forward.

With more and more older churches making less and less an impact for Jesus on our world and more and more younger pastors willing to plant a church without SBC ties, the CP money flow will decline quicker than in previous years. it would take less time if the small church really knew what was going on like they were informed from 79 forward.


Anonymous said...

Ezell said, “We will use pastors and others who are doing a wonderful job where they are but can advise us”

He hasn't fleshed this concept out but do you get the sense that here is an indication of direct funding for some churches and pastors who are doing that 'wonderful job'?

Quotes from his interview with the Christian INdex:

INDEX: Giving out millions of dollars to churches in $50,000 and $100,000 increments (grants) could recreate the “bloated bureaucracy” when it comes to administrative accountability that many decried SBC agencies for creating in the first place. What are your thoughts on that?

EZELL: I can see where someone might say, “Well, he will just give money to his friends to plant churches.” What we would like to do is come up with a regional strategy. There are three primary areas that are underserved: the West, the Northeast, and Canada. We would have regional supervision and they would work in partnership with those states.

We will have to see where this goes.


Anonymous said...


To part 1 - from my seat in the cheap seats, there are only a few people who might fit into his category of who is doing a wonderful job or who he would label as worthy of being an pastor who can (not could) advise. I don't think either you or I would fit that category, even if Jesus is pleased with the work we are doing.

To part 2 - When the paperwork comes out to get these funds, let me know and I will apply for us as a church. I will then let you know what we get. I do think it will be our funds which are used to give to those he gets advise from. Do you think he will give money out to anyone he deems as unworthy of listening too?

To part 3 - If I had the time to research I could probably pick a person or two from each region that would fit his criteria for being worthy of being used (his term) and they would probably hope they would get picked.

I don't think boot licking has ended.


Anonymous said...

I am willing to be semi-optimistic and let him formulate his plans. NAMB need some success.


Anonymous said...

I think your prediction of SBT passing BGCT in revenue is based on the way BGCT presents its budget. BGCT does not show the designated dollars going to SBC and CBF since the local churches determine that. If CP, Lottie Moon and Annie Armstrong were added to the BGCT budget, it would be around $65 million.

Anonymous said...

Well, slice it any way you wish, the rise of the SBC and fall of the BGCT is astonishing.


Anonymous said...

what about predicting something more positive like "more and more people who have never heard the Good News will have an opportunity b/c of the sacrifices that SBers will make"?

Anonymous said...

Will the megachurch Pastor involved in a major scandal in 2011 be from the Atlanta area?

Anonymous said...

I'm just going on the numbers with the megascandal. I have no info on anyone. Seems to me that there is so much money and accolades lavished on megapastors that some succumb and stumble, and some do so spectacularly. I look for at least one this year.

Anon, Jan 5, it is no prediction that many will hear the gospel because of SBC giving, going, and praying. It's been a regular occurence for over a century and a half. Thank God for that.


Anonymous said...

What about Lumpkins and Guthrie will continue to stand up for the unrepentant--Ergun Caner in 2011

Anonymous said...

Do you know the Mike Everson story?