Plodders predictions, er, conjectures for 2011

Doesn't cost a thing to make predictions. Even if you're wrong, people forget about them and you can always trumpet the lucky few you get right. Here are mine on SBC stuff:

International Mission Board:
The 96 trustees will finally settle on a new leader who will be a known SBC figure rather than an obscure missions-driven person like Jerry Rankin was way back when he was tapped to be the leader.

The IMB will not make the Ezell mistake and choose a person whose support of the Cooperative Program and Lottie Moon was virtually nonexistent, forcing their new leader to continually explain an apologize for the non-support; however, believing that the key issue with the IMB is funding and that megachurch pastors know how to rake in cash, the trustees’ new man (dare anyone even think a woman will even be considered?) will either be a megachurch pastor or have strong mega connections. This will prove to be a mistaken belief.

The IMB even with the new leader will still have funding shortfalls.

North American Mission Board
Having cleared the decks of 99 employees at his Alpharetta HQ, Kevin Ezell will focus his attention on planting churches and will make some major policy changes, including direct funding to some megachurches. This will be hotly criticized. The Annie Armstrong offering will yet again fall far short of the goal. That and declining Cooperative Program giving will force more staffing cuts. The plan to end the Cooperative Agreements with the states will go forward but without yielding much additional money for NAMB.

Cooperative Program:
The decades long decline in the percentage of church offering plate dollars devoted to the CP will continue.

Great Commission Resurgence Recommendations:
Even though a number of state conventions declared they would move towards a 50/50 state/national CP split, little movement in this direction will actually occur.

Assorted odd stuff:

An SBC megachurch pastor will be involved in a major scandal.

The Cooperative Baptist Fellowship will continue to eke out an existence but will not find their ‘revisioning’ sufficiently visionary to infuse new life into an organization that still has the identity of being the anti-SBC.

The Southern Baptists of Texas convention will surpass the Baptist General Convention of Texas in revenues.

GuideStone, recognizing that their health insurance product is struggling, that their pool of insured is older and sicker, and that they will soon to be priced out of the market, will make changes to keep it from total collapse. Premiums will nonetheless go up.

Frank Page will prove to be less hands-on with Baptist Press than his predecessor, even though he made BP part of his PR office.

Plodder will continue his incessant blogging and will acquire an audience beyond even what he can count on his fingers, and toes.