SBC preview and predictions

Next week. Baltimore. There will be strutting. There will be stuffing. There will be puffing. There will be frivolity. There will be hand-wringing. There will be resume passing. There will be business, elections, motions, promotions and emotions.

It's the annual mobocracy called the SBC Annual Meeting. Here's my preview.

Elections

We've got a duke's mixture of candidates. One megachurch pastor. One microchurch pastor. One large church, ethnic pastor.

The first is Ronnie Floyd who lost to Frank Page back in 2006, primarily because his megachurch Cooperative Program giving was a micropercentage, 0.29. Since then, his church is giving a large amount and decent percentage, less than the average but good enough for my threshold.

The microchurch pastor is Jared Moore, PhD student, current first vice president. He is an outstanding pastor but is uninformed on many aspects of SBC work, a judgment I make from exchanges with him over the years on blogs. Needs experience, age, and smoothness. The SBC president can't do a lot to help but can easily do a little that will hurt. There is an affinity in the SBC for small church pastors but not nearly enough for a majority...and unlike last years VP election, there will be a quorum this year when the vote is held.

The ethnic pastor is Korean Dennis Kim. His large church is a mission machine. He is below the radar in the SBC, though not because of any deficiency in accomplishment.

Moore has no chance and Floyd is clearly the favorite but I would vote for Dennis Kim. I like the idea of moving away from megachurches and the oligarchy of megachurch pastors and their members that dominate important positions, trusteeships, and committees.

I'd predict a Kim victory but conventions are lightly attended these years and the middle-aged greybeards like to attend and I'd guess there are enough to elect Floyd. There's really not much the SBC president can do, or has done, or will do.

Reports

NAMB assembled a group of pastors to "assess and respond to stark patterns of decline in Southern Baptists' evangelism and baptisms." They met. Ed Stetzer threw a bunch of statistics at them. The have a report and some recommentdations.

Pastor's Task Force on SBC Evangelistic Impact and Declining Baptisms 

These are good people and this was a serious effort but the conclusion was to round up the usual suspects. Let's pray more, witness more, make disciples, try and "leverage" the next generation to do better than we have.

I expect most SBC leaders to do some handwringing over the report, same as in previous years. I don't have a solution to this but, my how we do like to lament the lack of baptisms.

Paige Patterson will be asked about his Muslim student at Southwestern Seminary. He will unless he stacks the mics with friendlies who prevent the question. He has responded with a statement already. Trustees either have the guts to address the matter or not. I cannot see much happening from the convention floor.

Russell Moore may be asked about his hires at the ERLC. The Gospel Coalition seems to have moved to the ERLC under Moore. He should be asked in particular about his new spokesperson who has acquired a reputation for brusque twitter exchanges. This isn't helpful. Richard Land, before he resigned, was perceived as just another ascerbic Republican talk show host. Moore better pay attention here.

Motions

The Executive Committee has a monumental change proposed for the SBC Constitution. They propose tweaking the messenger allocation formula. That looks fine to me. They also propose linking the SBC Constitution in regard to what constitutes "in friendly cooperation" to the Baptist Faith and Message. This part of their motion should be tabled or removed.

Motions from the floor always provide some unexpected entertainment. One never knows what an SBC messenger will come up with.

Miscellany and questions

I wonder if Frank Page will make note of the fact that the Executive Committee received more designated funds than Cooperative Program funds in the last fiscal year? We are mostly a societal giving convention at the SBC level.

Just how much did Golden Gate seminary receive for their prime acerage in Mill Valley? Should be the largest SBC real estate transaction ever. LifeWay had far more acreage at Glorieta but sold it for a buck.

Last year we had the Calvinist committee making their report. That is long forgotten and we are probably worse off in this regard than one year ago. Will someone make a splash about the Calvinists? God only knows but I'd guess that someone will.

What blogger will be elected as a VP this year?

I'd be there for the duration, brethren, but will watch from afar. Have fun.

Just how are our seminaries stacking up these days?

When I visited seminaries back in 1978 prior to enrolling, I went to Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary which was touted as the largest seminary in the world. Put together bold-talking Southern Baptists and tall-tale Texans and you've got a recipe for some heavy, heavy trash talking. Largest IN THE WORLD! Largest IN HISTORY!

Impressive, tough I chose not to attend.

How are things looking these days? Well, it depends on the measure but let's look at graduates and compare our six seminaries of 2003 with those of 2012:

                        SBC SEMINARY GRADUATES

                                       2003         2012
Golden Gate                      180          249
Midwestern                          80          141
New Orleans                      448          617
Southeastern                     333          333          
Southern                            409          556
Southwestern                     649          455

One wonders exactly what they are touting out at Southwestern these days, the seminary not being the world's largest, not even the largest in the SBC, not even the second largest in the SBC by this measure. Still, over four hundred grads is a huge seminary; nonetheless, although graduates may vary from year-to-year, SWBTS clearly is a declining seminary. In contrast, Southern is a growing seminary. Someone can play the Calvinist card here if they wish.

I admit to being out of touch with seminaries (see the note below about these figures) and there may be some wrinkle in this of which I am unaware but any way you slice it Southwestern is a declining seminary and New Orleans and Southern are growing seminaries. There are other measures to use in looking at seminaries.

One figure I would like to see is how many graduates of each of these institutions receive a graduate level degree and how many receive an undergraduate degree or diploma.

[Note on source: The source for these figures is the SBC annual reports. I was given the figures by a researcher and have not fact-checked them all. I did check a few by the SBC annuals that I have in my possession. If there are errors or omissions, perhaps a number-geek reader would inform me.]

Three outrageous suggestions for the Cooperative Program

Plodder is beholden to no man, woman (save my wonnerful wife), or animal (save my beloved pooch) and feels no compunction to hold back on possibilities for improving the Cooperative Program. Here are three suggestions:

1. Close a seminary. Shut down, shutter, and sell either Midwestern or New Orleans. We do not need regional seminaries and have not for some years. Regional seminaries are a relic of the mid-twentieth century. We could have closed NOBTS after the hurricane. MWBTS lacks the economies of scale that Southwestern, Southeastern, and Southern have, besides Southern Baptists have started and supported from scratch, without the Cooperative Program, a seminary in that area that is thoroughly SBC but independent of the CP – Mid-America Baptist Theological Seminary.

Golden Gate has made it by selling fabulously expensive real estate but that golden goose may be about dead. The idea of an SBC seminary in California was/is good. How much are we willing to devote to it?

This idea doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in Gehenna of being implemented, since both MWBTS and especially NOBTS have substantial allies. Would the SBC be able to educate ministers for the foreseeable future without either or both of them? Sure.

2. Set an informal standard for elected leaders, trustees, and executive employees. If you want to be elected SBC officer, trustee, or employee you have to have been a member or pastor of a church that gives at least X% to the Cooperative Program and/or X% in Great Commission Giving. If we are serious about the CP and SBC entities, prove it by telling pastors who want a job, or want to be trustees, or their laypeople that if they don’t give a minimum percentage to the CP/GCG then they should not expect to be employed or elected as a trustee of an SBC entity.

The Executive Committee through the new consortium of Cooperative Program specialists could implement this. Even if it is only a suggestion and does not, indeed cannot, force the SBC in annual assembly or the Committee on Committees or the Nominating Committee to nominate or vote for folks who met the threshold standard it could be a powerful factor in future elections.

3. Ask all SBC entities – the mission boards, the Executive Committee, the seminaries – to reduce the number of trustees and trustee expenses. The IMB has 96, count ‘em, trustees. I believe I saw an annual trustee expense figure of about a million dollars for that mob. NAMB doesn’t seem to have prospered the last decade or so with a huge number of trustees. Save the money and maybe get a better result with less, I say. Someone commented that Golden Gate seminary has more trustees than it has faculty. Why? We all know the reasons that there are so many trustee slots – we SBCers love positions, titles, and perks. The savings would be in the millions.

Any other irreverent and outrageous suggestions?