Happy to be of help.
I would have caucused for Rick Santorum, were I a frigid Iowan last evening. Instead I worked down my wood pile and stayed warm at home in the basement. It went down to 20 degrees last night here.
Santorum: Sure, I told him to drop out back on October 22nd which should have been a hint about the worth of my political savvy. I admit that the more I listened to him, the better I liked him. Although he will not be the nominee, he has proven himself to have sufficient presence to be looked at as presidential...
...something to contrast to Newt Gingrich. How could fellow Georgian Newt rise and fall so far, so fast? To be so slick in the debates and then revert to form the last couple of weeks is puzzling...unless it is just Newt being Newt. Come on, Newt, drop out and be an idea guy.
Bachmann...the more I watched her the more she grated on me. All this 'titanium spine,' 'iron lady,' and 'most ready' stuff...she's been in the House for five years, one of 435 members of that body for crying out loud. After a while, just incessantly declaring yourself to be The Man needs some bolstering through real achievement. Go back to the House and get some things done Michelle.
Best move Rick Perry has made...going back to Texas to 'reassess' things. Oops, guess all those millions of dollars are gone. The pundits say Perry is really likeable one-on-one but, like a pastor has to deliver from the pulpit, so a politician has to do well before the crowds and TV. Bye bye.
Paul. Unelectable. Can get 20 or so percent of Iowans. Could get maybe 15 percent of the popular vote. Like Krauthammer said way back, Libertarianism isn't a governing philosophy.
Romney. I voted for him in the 2008 Georgia primary. The big Mormon dog in this race. Will be tough to beat.
This will be an entertaining year up un till the GOP has the clear nominee, then a depressingly negative grind until the November election with the two spending a couple of billion trashing the other.
10 comments:
Not a big fan of Romney, but I think in the end, it's gonna be him against Obama.
Romney may wind up pulling it out, but he'll have to fight that consistent 20% of Republicans which have shown up in polls ever since he first ran in 2008 who say that they will not vote for him if he is the nominee, no matter what. No Republican can afford for 20% of the party to either stay home, vote third party, or (gasp!)vote for Obama. He's not popular in the South at all, and against Obama in the Northeast, he's not going to take any of the blue block states away, not Pennsylvania, which is essential, not Ohio, not even his home state of Massachussetts. He might run a close popular vote, picking up some independents, but he'll lose the electoral college big.
Lee,
I couldn't disagree with you more. First of all Romney will take every Southern state including Florida. Secondly I think he will be competitive in Ohio. You underestimate how much Republican, even the ones who say they don't like Romney, dislike President Obama. Further the Presidents economic choices, quite frankly, scare a lot of people. I think Romney will mop the floor with President Obama.
You fellows haven't done the remedial reading and are ill prepared for this moment.
Here is the elementary list
Jill Lepore on Planned Parenthood and the Constitution in the New Yroker.
The discussion on Nelson Price and Shorter in the Kathryn Amos letter and others at RN-t.com
Stephens and Giberson's the Anointed.
And the Brian Kaylor piece you can click on name with this post and read away.
The SBC has created a vast wasteland for this moment and Richard Land and company are not up to this moment let alone the people in the pew who have been distracted by the fundamentalist takeover of the Southern Baptist Convention.
You fellows haven't done the remedial reading and are ill prepared for this moment.
Here is the elementary list
Jill Lepore on Planned Parenthood and the Constitution in the New Yroker.
The discussion on Nelson Price and Shorter in the Kathryn Amos letter and others at RN-t.com
Stephens and Giberson's the Anointed.
And the Brian Kaylor piece you can click on name with this post and read away.
The SBC has created a vast wasteland for this moment and Richard Land and company are not up to this moment let alone the people in the pew who have been distracted by the fundamentalist takeover of the Southern Baptist Convention.
Pardon the double post. It was a computer error, not intentional
Newt's major problem is that he doesn't have much of an internal monologue. For every bad idea, he has 5 good ones...if only the bad ideas were weeded out before becoming part of the public record.
Santorum's problem is that his solid and electrifying conservative values are delivered in a less than electrifying manner and cadence.
Romney's problem is that the base of his own party is desperate to find an alternative to him at the top of the ticket.
That said, I have no clue how the history of Margaret Sanger, Birth Control, and Abortion bear on the Plodder's post. I'll stifle the urge to ask Stephen to explain this for us.
I think what Romney needs to worry about, John, is a conservative running as an independent candidate, syphoning off GOP votes. Ron Paul is probably closest to that, not enough to be a threat to win, but certainly enough to keep Romney from winning.
Don't underestimate Obama, especially against Romney. Polls that show head to head do not show Romney winning the southern states with the big electoral vote blocks, head to head shows him trailing Obama in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Ohio might be close if its Gingrich or perhaps Ron Paul, but not Romney. Too many Republicans will stay home if he's the nominee.
The other problem the Republicans have is what they are going to focus their campaigns on. Right now, the "get Obama out at all costs" is not resonating with independents. If they're going to win, they are going to have to come up with a plan for economic recovery that the voters can believe in. Romney is one of the 1%, and represents only the 1%. You must live in the south, John. The dislike of Obama is not nearly as strong up here in the Northeast, or in the west, and this is where the buld of the population and electoral votes are found. The Quinnipiac poll shows Obama beating Romney in his home state of Massachussetts by 16 percentage points.
The two best Republican candidates, or I would say most sensible, are either not in the race at all, or barely in it. Mike Huckabee would be the strongest candidate they could field, who could pick up a lot of independents and even some conservative Democrats. He'd get my vote. Huntsman is running, but has little money and isn't showing much interest in doing what he needs to win. He's also a Mormon, which is why I wouldn't vote for him.
Lee,
I just checked the polls and Rasmussen shows Romney beating Obama 45% to 39%. Gallup shows Obama 50% to 48% which a virtual tie. The truth is in my opinion is that Romney has the best chance of deafeating Obama.
Also I might remind you that President Obama is a part of the 1% as well.
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